Israel voted five times between April 2019 and November 2022. Then the 25th Knesset, elected on November 1, 2022, served its full four years, war included: its term ended on July 17, 2026, and the election is being held on the date set by law. That had not happened since the 11th Knesset, the one of 1984-1988 and the Peres-Shamir unity government.
## The frontrunner has never been elected
Gadi Eisenkot, IDF chief of staff from 2015 to 2019, entered politics in 2022 alongside Benny Gantz, left the emergency government in June 2024 and founded his own party, Yashar, in 2025. He holds no seat today. In the three final polls allowed by law, published on Friday, October 23 by Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13, Yashar comes first with 22 to 23 seats. Likud follows with 19 to 21.
## The incumbent, eleven seats short
Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, prime minister from 1996 to 1999, from 2009 to 2021 and since December 2022, is seeking a seventh term. His bloc, from Likud to Itamar Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit by way of Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism, gets 50 seats in all three polls. He is eleven short.
Across the aisle, the so-called change bloc, Yashar, the joint list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu and Yair Golan's Democrats, is given 52 to 56 seats. Not 61 either. The Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, weigh 14 to 16 seats that nobody counts in a bloc. Yoaz Hendel's Reservists hover around the 3.25% threshold.
## Midbar tells all: security is not what is at stake
The two men who can become prime minister are both hawks. Eisenkot helped shape the Dahiya doctrine and considers a two-state solution impossible in the current context. Gaza, Hezbollah and Iran do not set him apart from Netanyahu. Bennett opposes two states; Lieberman calls for dismantling the Palestinian Authority.
Bennett opposes two states; Lieberman calls for dismantling the Palestinian Authority.
What is at stake on Tuesday lies elsewhere: accountability for October 7, with a state commission of inquiry that the opposition demands and Netanyahu refuses; the Haredi draft, which Bennett and Lapid want universal; judicial reform. For 68% of Jewish Israelis, October 7 is a central factor in their vote, according to the Israel Democracy Institute.
On Polymarket, as of October 19, Eisenkot had a 49% chance of becoming prime minister, Netanyahu 31%, Bennett 16%, with some $46 million wagered. Bettors, not voters.
Polls close on Tuesday at 10 p.m.; official results come on November 4. If nobody reaches 61, weeks of negotiations begin. If they fail, Israel votes again in early 2027, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister.
Two years of war. And on Tuesday, seven million Israelis do the most normal thing in the world: they vote.
*Sources: [Times of Israel, the final polls of October 23](https://www.timesofisrael.com/final-polls-before-election-show-both-blocs-short-of-majority-small-parties-out-of-knesset/); [France 24, the candidates facing Netanyahu](https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20261022-l%C3%A9gislatives-isra%C3%ABl-qui-sont-principaux-candidats-face-%C3%A0-benjamin-netanyahu-eisenkot-lapid-bennett-golan-liberman); [Israel Hayom, a Knesset serving its full term](https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/07/12/israels-next-official-election-date-set); [Israel Democracy Institute, Israeli Voice Index](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/66177); [Jerusalem Post, the Polymarket odds](https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-912111); [Al Jazeera, the electorate per the Central Elections Committee](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/20/israels-elections-2026-explained-in-maps-and-charts).*
