With 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, the AfD is within touching distance of an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt. The real story isn't the score: it's that a small party polling 5.3%, the BSW, could hand it the first far-right state government in Germany since 1945 — and that the famous 'firewall' no longer depends on the big parties.
The verdict came down on Sunday: the AfD won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, crushing Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU, relegated to 17.2%. The far-right party takes 39 of the regional parliament's 83 seats — just three seats short of an absolute majority. Merz said he was "deeply shocked" and acknowledged his party's "most severe defeat" in decades, adding that there could be no "return to business as usual."
We analyzed before the election what such a score would mean. What's new is that it has happened — and beyond the projections. Above all, one arithmetical detail changes everything: Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW, credited with 5.3%, has not ruled out governing with the AfD. If these numbers hold, the first far-right government of a German state since the Second World War would depend neither on the CDU nor the SPD, but on a party born of the radical left. The famous "firewall," which the mainstream press presents as the business of the "respectable" parties, can be bypassed from the margins.



