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Elections

What the prediction markets say

On a prediction market, thousands of traders put real money on the outcome of a vote. The price of an option reads as a probability: 40% means the market gives it 4 chances in 10. It is not a poll, it is a collective bet, updated continuously.

Israeli election

October 27, 2026 · Vote in 27 days

Who will be prime minister after the election?

$41.3M traded

0%25%50%JulAugSep
  1. Gadi Eisenkot▼ 548%
  2. Benjamin Netanyahu▲ 433%
  3. Naftali Bennett▲ 514%
  4. Avigdor Lieberman▲ 13.5%
  5. Ofer Winter▼ 1< 1%
  6. Itamar Ben Gvir< 1%
  7. Yossi Cohen< 1%
  8. Yair Golan< 1%
  9. Yoaz Hendel< 1%
  10. Yair Lapid< 1%

Source: Polymarket · Updated Sep 30, 11:36 AM · ▲▼ over 7 days

Which list will come first?

$452.8K traded

0%25%50%JulAugSep
  1. Yashar▼ 459%
  2. Likud▲ 542%
  3. Together< 1%
  4. Shas< 1%
  5. The Democrats< 1%
  6. Otzma Yehudit< 1%

Source: Polymarket · Updated Sep 30, 11:36 AM · ▲▼ over 7 days

2027 French presidential election

April 18, 2027 · Vote in 200 days

Who will be elected president?

$140.5M traded

0%10%20%30%40%50%JulAugSep
  1. Marine Le Pen▲ 443%
  2. Édouard Philippe▼ 519%
  3. Jean-Luc Mélenchon▲ 314%
  4. David Lisnard7.5%
  5. François Hollande5.8%
  6. Gabriel Attal2.1%
  7. Raphaël Glucksmann1.7%
  8. Bruno Retailleau1.5%
  9. Jordan Bardella1.4%
  10. Éric Zemmour1.1%

Source: Polymarket · Updated Sep 30, 11:37 AM · ▲▼ over 7 days

Who will make the runoff?

$228.0K traded

0%25%50%75%100%JulAugSep
  1. Marine Le Pen89%
  2. Jean-Luc Mélenchon▲ 1048%
  3. Édouard Philippe▼ 245%
  4. David Lisnard9.1%
  5. Raphaël Glucksmann6.8%
  6. François Hollande6.5%
  7. Olivier Faure6.3%
  8. Gabriel Attal5.7%
  9. Jordan Bardella5.5%
  10. Carole Delga5.1%

Source: Polymarket · Updated Sep 30, 11:37 AM · ▲▼ over 7 days